Key facts
Atlantic season runs through November 30. NOAA's August update called for below-normal activity — and the agency is emphatic that its outlook is not a landfall forecast.
October 1. The calendar says hurricane season is winding down, but the Atlantic doesn't read calendars: the official season runs June 1 through November 30 every year. So with two months left, it's worth understanding exactly what NOAA's seasonal outlook is — and what it isn't.
In its August 6 update, NOAA maintained its call for a below-normal Atlantic season: 7 to 13 named storms (winds of at least 39 mph), of which 2 to 6 could become hurricanes (74 mph or greater), including 0 to 2 major hurricanes (111 mph or greater). The agency gave that below-normal outcome a 75% probability, with a 20% chance of a near-normal season and 5% of above-normal. For reference, a typical Atlantic season yields 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. As of the August update, 2026 had produced just two named storms — Arthur and Bertha, both in the Gulf.
The reason is El Niño. The climate pattern emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June, and as NOAA's lead hurricane-season forecaster Matt Rosencrans put it, "when El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity." The mechanism: El Niño increases wind shear over the Atlantic — changing wind speed or direction with height — which tends to prevent tropical storms from forming or from strengthening once formed. Atlantic temperatures were near average and the West African monsoon was neutral, but against a strengthening El Niño, those factors played second fiddle.
Here's the crucial caveat, and NOAA states it in every outlook: the Hurricane Season Outlook is for overall seasonal activity. It is not a landfall forecast. Whether a storm hits your coastline is determined by short-term weather patterns that are only predictable within about a week of potential landfall. A "below-normal" season can still produce a devastating landfall — Tropical Storm Arthur in June brought record rainfall to parts of Louisiana without ever becoming a hurricane, which is exactly why NOAA's National Weather Service director Ken Graham warned: "it's important to prepare for every storm that is projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength."
What NOAA can tell you, precisely: the National Hurricane Center issues tropical weather outlooks up to seven days ahead, and for every active cyclone, a full advisory package — track and intensity forecast, wind arrival times, storm-surge maps — at 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m., and 11 p.m. EDT. The season outlook is the weather. The advisories are the forecast. Know which one you're reading.
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Reported with AI assistance from public sources. Align Newsroom's standard: every factual claim above carries its evidence link in the article metadata.
Sources & evidence
- Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30 each year. corroborated
- NOAA's August 6, 2026 outlook update predicted 7–13 named storms (winds 39+ mph), of which 2–6 could become hurricanes (74+ mph), including 0–2 major hurricanes (111+ mph), with a 75% chance of below-normal activity. corroborated
- El Niño conditions, which emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June 2026, increase wind shear and tend to prevent tropical storms from forming or strengthening in the Atlantic; NOAA called it the dominant factor in seasonal activity. corroborated
- NOAA's Hurricane Season Outlook is for overall seasonal activity, not a landfall forecast; landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns predictable only about a week out. corroborated
- The National Hurricane Center provides tropical weather outlooks up to seven days in advance, plus track and intensity forecasts and watches/warnings for individual storms. corroborated
- A typical Atlantic season yields 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes; the 2026 season had produced two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) as of early August. corroborated
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